Death by a thousand plays

If the anticipation leading up to Saturday doesn't kill us, the sheer spectacle of our new offense just might, regardless of success or failure. 

Regarding the former, perhaps fear is a better word than anticipation.  The questions are well documented; the doubt is palpable.  ND Nation would be foolish not to be losing sleep over this game.  We've been fooled into believing in the hope of new regimes more times than we've celebrated bowl wins in the recent past.  We've readied ourselves for offensive brilliance.  We've nodded our heads in acceptance of a switch to the 3-4.  At our best, we we've been guilty of having faith in the incompetent;  at our worst, we've consciously ignored what our instincts should have told us was arrogance masquerading as excellence.  In short:  we've believed, and we've been burned. 

If wondering whether that stops now isn't too much for us, we might actually make it to kickoff, and then the real cardiac stimulation will start.  As Notre Dame fans, demographically, a lot of us have been raised by conservatives, whether fiscal, moral, or both.  These conservatives did what came naturally to them and did their best to raise their own to think, act, vote, and spend, well... conservatively.  And you know what?  Many of us like our football that way too.  This whole thing may be tough for us.  To many, huddling before offensive plays just makes too much sense to go and throw out the window.  Grinding out the clock just feels so blue and gold.  There is going to be a moment on Saturday when we all feel like we woke up in someone else's bed.  When that time arrives, my advice to you all is to take a deep breath, partake in legal over the counter mild depressants in moderation, pretend you've been invited by a friend to check out an arena league game, and most importantly:

Focus on what you know.
If you're so flustered you can't remember, here are a few reminders:
1.  The team that scores the most points wins.  You can even picture Lou Holtz saying it if that helps.  Brian Kelly's teams score 30 points per game regularly, and most of them come early.  This point production generally doesn't have a ramp at the beginning of the season and isn't prejudiced toward crappy opponents.  Past performance is the best predictor of future performance, and Brian Kelly teams almost never get shut out and almost always have 20 points by halftime.

2.  Teams that are efficient in the red zone win games.  (The red zone is where you have a good chance of scoring points, to return to point number one.)  Brian Kelly's first focus every week is on red zone efficiency, and while we all know he's not alone in that department, all of his teams have had good stats there.  We're going to get there a lot, and we're going to convert... a lot.  And if we don't convert, we don't need to go crying about it, because we'll be back there before we know it.

3.  Defenses hate the spread.  Teams build their personnel schemes around substitution rhythm and the chance to get set, and we're going to take that rhythm away.  If our pace of play is uncomfortable or confusing to you, just imagine trying to figure out how to make sense of it (let alone stop it) from a defensive perspective at field level while gasping for air.

4.  Risk is necessary to achieve reward.  Ah yes, the dirty secret of conservatives.  We will make a ton of mistakes.  We will be penalized up and down the field.  Yes, these are hallmarks of Brian Kelly's scheme too.  Take another sip of the legal depressant and remind yourself of a great quote from the Shawshank Redemption:  "get busy livin' or get busy dyin'."  Over time, our mistakes will begin to feel less impactful in light of the fact that we're running so many more plays and scoring so many more times than we're used to.

The Irish may lose on Saturday.  I wouldn't count on it, but it won't be the end of the world either if it happens.  It will happen again this season, and may happen more than many of us would like.  The whole thing is going to look like a hot mess sometimes.  It will feel uncomfortable.  But we'll be livin', and we'll be serving up a whole new brand of death by a thousand plays.

Boiling Pots of Questions

As the countdown to 2010 kickoff dips below the one week mark and Irish anticipation begins to heat up past a simmer, it makes perfect sense to start talking Boilers.  As we take our first look at this season's run in with our long time cross state rival, it becomes clear that Purdue is one team that can see our stack of question marks and raise us a few more of their own.

Want questions?  Start with Junior transfer QB Robert Marve.  The highly touted Tampa recruit's redshirt freshman season with the Canes in 2008 ran amok with problems on and off the field.  1300 yds, 9 TDs and 13 INTs later, he announced his intent to transfer to West Lafayette and then dropped a cherry on the sundae by tearing his ACL three days later in on field drills.  Highly touted, unproven, and recently injured... remind you of any QB phrases we've been dropping lately?

Questions related to injuries and depth don't stop under center.  Tailback Ralph Bolden (900 yds, 9 TDs) is out with a second serious knee injury, likely for good.  In fact, all five scholarship backs were sidelined for the spring game with injuries.  Two great starters return to the O-Line, but the rest of the crew is young and unproven.  Questions surrounding the line and the running game may force Marve to quickly find WR Keith Smith, which could lead to success by air - Smith was the league's best receiver last year while playing most of the season with a broken wrist.  The biggest question regarding Purdue's offense is really:  how one dimensional will they be forced to be, and if so, can they be successful?

Questions about the offense are but a shadow of those regarding the defense.  Sound familiar?  The secondary is in shambles after losing four starters and there is not much evidence of retooling to any degree that would keep Brian Kelly from salivating like Charlie Weis at a buffet line.  The program was still actively recruiting DBs in the Spring to plug the holes.  The foundation up front is solid, but additional questions from injuries around the linebacking core raise another question:  will the pass rush be solid enough to stop the temptation to soak this team with a persistent aerial attack?

Overall, the biggest question has to be, which Purdue will show up?  The team that beat Ohio State and Michigan last year, or the one that lost to Northern Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota?  How will the still new coaching regime fare after an accelerating start in its first season last year?  How much transition is too much transition for this team?  How many wins can be guaranteed from a schedule that matches the hot hots and cold colds of Notre Dame's?  Can Purdue squeeze out a bowl birth for the first time since 2007?

You wanted questions - you got 'em.  We should be used to this by now.  In seven days, we'll no doubt each have at least some of the answers.  Here's to boiling up the right ones, and evaporating our share of the pot.

Exploiting the Numbers: Purdue

The Prediction Tracker (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/) has been updated for the Purdue opener. For those of you that have not visited their site, it is a great source for detecting and exploiting any variances between the current line on a game and the consensus median line compiled by dozens of computer models. Early in the season, said variances are often only indicators of imperfect modeling or unknown information. Later in the season, variances can be big buzzing neon signs that it is time to send a wad of cash down to Vegas with your uncle Terry. As you can imagine, these variances are better exploited across a sizable pool of games than with one big push of your chips to the center of the table. My Dad has done pretty well at squeezing $1 singles and $3 parlays out of his buddy Bruno using this method as his guide over the last three years. Of course, my final bit of advice as always is: don’t take advice from me. Knowing all this, let’s take a look at Purdue.


The opening line is Irish by 10 and the money has been coming in on the Irish, resulting in a bet up spread of 11 as of the publication of this post. The median prediction by all computer models has the Irish winning by 9.83 points with one of the smaller standard deviations of any of the opening games, meaning most everyone agrees within a very tight range that the Irish will win, but without covering the spread. Well, fine, we’ll take that over losing and covering, right? One point of interest is the contrarian high vote of the poll – the Moore Power Ratings has the Irish winning (and covering) by 12. Looking back at last year’s results over the course of an entire season, Moore was a top 10 predictor against the spread, averaging about 52% correct. That should solidify any indecision you may have to the point of redirecting your discretionary spending to a malted beverage before the game, and reinforce the fact that even if you are the best of the best, you can only ever hope to have the slightest of edges against the house.  And by the "house", we're not talking about the house Rock built, we're talking about the one that was built with all the money they took from you last time you were down there.

Nevertheless, we will update this analysis before the big weekend arrives.

Panning for QB2 Gold

Friday’s practice was all about the key backups and position battles, with second squad decisions looming this week. It will be interesting to see who wins QB2 behind Crist, between Freshman Tommy Rees and Junior Nate Montana. Following Friday’s practice, Kelly highlighted the contrast between Rees’ natural fit in the spread offense and Montana’s arm strength and athleticism. Kelly’s decision here could be seen as an early insight into the value system and long term focus of the new regime. Does Kelly believe Montana will ever be leading his offense? Give Crist two games or two years – either way, you’re left with a shorter runway with Montana, hoping you can mold a more mature guy into an offense that might not come as naturally. A short runway and imperfect fit is what you’ve already got at QB1. While it may be better to bury Rees for now, there is also the matter of sending a message to the team and ND Nation. This offense is about discipline, precision, timing, and perfection. If all of these come more naturally to Rees and all other traits such as work ethic and competitive drive are equal, then pan what you’ve been preaching is gold and prove to the team that we’re all taking the same thing to the bank.

So Long, Petey

This one is a little overdue and dripping with irony, as I'm a Seahawk fan who could just as easily be saying "Hiya Petey."  But my blood and bones are Irish, and saying goodbye feels so much better these days than saying hello.

My focus could be on how certain I am that Pete Carroll will fail at the helm of another pro team.  On how past performance (34-33 in four seasons including playoffs) is the best indicator of future performance.  On how his approach on all levels has been closer to that of a song girl than a four star general, and why that won't work in the NFL.  On how reliance on seemingly God-given recruiting superiority and the ability to work NCAA regulations over like a contestent on The Biggest Loser mean nothing on Sunday.  On how staring intently with hands on knees and then skipping down the sidelines with back-slapping rah-rah giddyness doesn't exactly convince millionaire players that you have what it takes to put rings on their fingers.

I could be raging pissed at how the Seahawks' front office has handled this.  About how they have apparently adopted the Washington Redskin approach to building a franchise.  About how amateur they look when they hire a head coach before a GM.  About how they think having a Head Coach and a GM that don't have a direct reporting relationship somehow creates a good dynamic.  About how they booted a hometown guy who loves this city and its fans, and who would have never left us in the lurch except maybe to take the other job in town that just happens to be his alma mater.  About how they couldn't get a deal done with Mike Holmgren and think this somehow makes up for it.

But no.

Rather than focus on all that, I turn to my Irish side.  "So Long, Petey."  I sure am glad you left your program in such great shape.  I sure am glad the only person more over-paid and under-qualified for their new job than you is now the head coach of USC.  I sure am happy to see that running a clean program is going to be a new focus down there.  I will miss the way you used to stubbornly refuse to believe that your team could be stopped on 4th and 3 in your own territory so often.  Sometimes you reminded me of Charlie in that way.  Well, without the spittle in corner of your mouth anyway.  I'll miss you for the way you used to bad mouth your own kind when they were on their way out as well.  I'll miss the classical music that played on your personal website - I really liked listening to that while reading about how great you are.  But most of all, I'll miss the look of pure horrific shock on your face that would arrive each year when some unranked PAC 10 team would outscheme you while you were busy butt-slappin'.  Such a motivator.

I could remember you for your record against the Irish, but not today.  This is a time for new beginnings right?  There's just so much to look forward to in South Bend, and the circus you've left behind in LA will be more entertaining than watching Charlie try to drag you down with him on the way out.  I'd wish you good luck, but I think we both know... you used yours up in 2005. 

And so I simply say "So Long, Petey... See ya on the sidelines in Seattle."

"Wouldn't want to be ya."

Kelly Green Warpath

Dear Brian,
Welcome to the Warpath. May your resume be clean and your stay with us long and profitable to all parties. May your tenure be (in order of importance) full of wins, free of scandal, and fun to watch. May you someday know the ring size of multiple fingers on your hand. May you be blessed with an uncanny ability to impress high school players, coaches, teachers, and moms with an energetic and magnetic personality that suggests you are the ultimate molder of men, deliverer of titles, and launching pad toward playing on Sunday. May 5 star recruits line up to play with you like frosh girls at the YoCream machine, and may they all live up to the hype (the recruits that is). May you stop the run. May you hire an incredible Defensive Coordinator who can stop time, stop a train, stop anything. May you show us what the term “schematic advantage” really means. May you consistently demonstrate mastery of whatever college football throws your way in terms of arcane clock stoppage and other meddling rules. May your tenure be blessed with a procession of quality Quarterbacks longer than a post game drive back to Chicago. May your players find the endzone efficiently and often, may they be willing to run through walls for you, and may we all believe that they could actually do it. May we lament an excessive celebration penalty every once in awhile. May you be as successful as Harbaugh at beating Pete Carroll, without being such an ass about it. May you embrace our tradition boldly, while not letting it deter you from accomplishing anything else wished for you here. May you never think the green jerseys are a good idea. Ever. May you laugh sarcastically at the thought of joining a conference. May you end the conversations about our relevance. May we rise from the ashes, return to glory, rise and strike, and everything else ever printed on the Shirt. May you someday be a statue. Give us what we want and we will love you forever.  May it all come true.