Why the Irish will win big today

The Irish will win big today.  It won't be close.  I would be lying if I said I wasn't nervous, but then again, I'm nervous for the Blue and Gold game.  One thing said on GameDay this morning made me feel a LOT better:  games like this are remembered forever, and are almost always won or lost before the game kicks off.  Why?  Because teams that prepare, prepare, prepare, win games like this.

The Irish are prepared.  Want proof?  Let's do a little exercise:  if you were to make a wish list of things that would indicate you are more prepared to play in a circus-like atmosphere on the road vs. one of your oldest rivals for an auto berth into the National Championship, what would you HAVE to have?

1.  One of the best Defenses in the nation and THE best defensive player in the nation
Yeah, those make the list.  Check, we got 'em.  Football outsiders tracks defensive efficiency stats for all 20k+ possessions in college football each year.  Notre Dame currently ranks 2nd on that list behind Florida.  We rank 14th in the nation in available yards given up, 7th in the nation in "value drives" given up (the number of opponent drives that start on their own side of the field and reach at least the 30), and 1st in the nation in "explosive drives" given up (the number of opponent drives that average at least 10 yards per play.  Take note of that last one, Marqise Lee fans - you might bend us, but you won't break us.  Has Notre Dame faced better offenses than SC?  Umm, yes.  Both Oklahoma's and Michigan's offenses are more efficient when adjusted for strength of schedule than SC's.  SC on the other hand, can't say they've seen a defense quite like Notre Dame's.  Stanford is closest - we know how that turned out.

2.  One of the best Offenses in the nation
Yes, I said that.  I am a firm believer that this offense is the most underrated in the nation.  Again, I return to my friends over at Football Outsiders. This may shock you, so sit down.  Notre dame has the 6th most efficient offense in the land.  Ahead of Oregon.  Ahead of all SEC teams, save for A&M, and yes, ahead of SC's offense at 24th.  Why?  Efficiency means ball control, yardage gained, and points earned, all adjusted for strength of opponent played.  Notre Dame is 12th in the nation in creating "methodical drives", those that last 10 or more plays.  13th in the nation in Value Drives, defined above, and in the top 50 at gaining yards and obtaining first downs.  All of this while playing FOUR OF THE TOP 20 DEFENSES IN THE NATION, including Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and BYU.  It may not look like the bast Offense in the nation very often - the Irish have certainly hit their share of speed bumps - but it IS battle tested, which translates into PREPAREDNESS.

3.  The more experienced Quarterback
This one would have been an interesting debate two weeks ago, but with Barkley out and the mouth in, this is hardly up for debate.

4.  A battle tested team that believes it can win even when things aren't going their way
Overtime wins vs. any BCS team, regardless of whether they are Pitt or Stanford, should count as huge resume gold stars.  Many like to point to the triple overtime game vs. Pitt as a negative.  I point to that as a badge of honor.  SC:  what is your record in overtime?

5.  The most athletic ability on the field
If you've made it this far, you're probably looking for something that I'll give SC.  Here it is.  These guys are all world 5 star jump out of the gym, run past you kind of athletes.... with four losses.  Having the most talent on the field is a huge advantage... when you are coached right, battle tested, and PREPARED.  Otherwise, you are just really fast, strong guys making mistakes.

6.  The better coach
One guy took the preseason number one team in the land with all the talent in the world, a Heisman candidate at QB, and a mediocre schedule, and found a way to lose four games to date.  Another took an unranked team with the toughest preseason schedule in the nation and brings them into Compton with a clean sheet.  No contest here.

Am I willing to call this a 100% lead pipe lock?  Never.  Games like this are still played because weekends like last weekend happen sometimes.  But those things happen when teams aren't properly prepared.  The items above are the best indicators, in my mind, of preparedness.  As such, I believe this will be over earlier than many think.  My prediction:  I'm going to say each of the above items is worth 3 points of margin of victory.  We have 5, they have 1.  Therefore the Irish win by (5-1)*3 = 12.  Sorry Trojan fans, I know that might have pushed your mathletic abilities to the brink.

Irish win, 33-21.

Exploiting the Numbers: Michigan

If there is any game that should completely confound computer models, this is it.  Michigan.  Notre Dame.  Denard.  Te’o.  The Lights.  A liquor breathing hive of a crowd.  A storied rivalry between ranked teams.  Welcome to the Jungle playing every five minutes.  They should put a big top tent over the whole thing and sell it to the Ringling Bros.  Nevertheless, our friends over at thepredictiontracker.com have aggregated all the computer models in one place to attempt to restore order to the madness, and it pleases me to report:  things look good for the Irish.  The opening line was 5 and Notre Dame faithful have pushed it up to 6.  Computer models are tight on this game – Irish win by and average of 9 with a median of 9.5.  That means the smart bet is on the Irish giving the points, so go ahead and wager that beer with your Wolverine office mate.  Tell him he's weak for wanting the points too.  Money line may be even more solid, with no single model showing the Irish will lose.  Somehow, I’ve never felt closer to my computer…

Reilly's Relevance Response

Rick Reilly recently spun up a nice little piece for ESPN on why Notre Dame is irrelevant, here.

The beauty of this article is that it not that it tries to compare NCAA football to European professional soccer.  It's not that it compares Brian Kelly to Bob Davie.  I'm sure you can see the brain power behind those comparisons without help.  No, the beauty of this article is that it shows the paradox of the "ND is NOT relevant!" logic perfectly.  In case you were distracted by Reilly's obligatory Leprechaun hazing and Rudy references, his logic goes something like this:

A.      Notre Dame is NOT relevant!

B.      Notre Dame shouldn’t get to be on TV

C.      Notre Dame shouldn’t get invited to big bowl games

D.      Notre Dame shouldn’t get ranked high in the preseason

The paradox here is that B, C, and D ARE THE REASONS why A is not true.

·        We are relevant BECAUSE NBC is willing to extend our TV deal year after year.  You don’t think we’re a bigger brand than USC?  Then why does everyone tune into watch us lose every week on NBC?  More people love Notre Dame… or hate us… doesn’t matter to me… that makes us relevant. 

·        We are relevant BECAUSE we get invited to big bowl games.  Yep, we keep losing.  Don’t invite us back then.  Why do we keep getting invited?  Because people love us.  Or love to hate us.  Doesn’t matter to me… but thanks for making us relevant.

·        Notre Dame gets ranked high in the preseason BECAUSE we are relevant.  I’m sure the coaches and press are brainwashed into thinking we’re better than we are.  They want so badly to put Oregon State in the top 25 but find their pens mysteriously writing Notre Dame instead.  It’s a conspiracy!  Someone from Notre Dame must be counting the votes.  Let’s keep talking about it!  Talk talk talk!  Guess what talk does – it makes us RELEVANT.

What Reilly, and anyone else who wants to relegate Notre Dame should do is:  Stop writing and talking about us.  If we’re so irrelevant, that should be easy.  Please, tune us out.  Write about golf.  Vote us out of the top 25.  Bet you can’t do it.  You know why?  Say it with me now….

 We’re relevant.

I know you want to comment on this post.  I think we should keep the dialogue going.  I’m up for talking about Notre Dame any time.  We should talk about Notre Dame a lot.  You should discuss this with your friends too I think.  I'm sure Reilly will be revisting this irrelevant topic many times this year.  Maybe ESPN could cover this debate throughout the entire season;  have a chat room devoted to it.  Put some poll widgets up on Reilly's bio page.  There should be some time in the upcoming presidential debates devoted to Notre Dame.  More people should write about this.  Maybe NBC could cover it.  I feel the Notre Dame buzz growing, like it always does this time of year.  Like it always will.