Exploiting the Numbers: Pitt

Minutes to kickoff, probably too late to place a bet with anyone other than the guy sitting next to you, but if you do, word to the wise:  the line opened with the Irish favored by 8 and has sunk to 6 with apparently smart money coming in on Pitt.  Smart in that our friends at the prediction tracker see it as a closer game than that - Irish by 3.5 in another apparent thriller.  We'll see.

Exploiting the Numbers: Michigan

Quick update beore the game.  The line opened with the Irish favored by 4 this week, but that attracted money on the Michigan side, resulting in a bet-down spread of 3.5.  Our friends at the prediction tracker (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/) have aggregated all the experts and computer models and returned something more like the the opening line:  Irish win by 4.06 on the median, with the average being slightly higher at 4.3.  So take that coworker from Michigan up on his cowardly offer to take the points from you if you have a chance... but it may be a nailbiter.

Irish Kool Aid: Refreshing

Game One - Notre Dame 23, Purdue 12

Whether you're drinking the green Kool Aid yet or not, you have to be feeling refreshed to a significant degree after Saturday's win and the start of the Kelly era.

The run game sputtered at first, but then found its groove early enough to make a difference.  Armando Allen seemed to be in too low a gear his first few carries.  The sheer speed of the offense was impressive and uncomfortable all at once, just like we thought it would be, but that seemed awkwardly counterbalanced by draw plays to Allen, who at first found nothing, getting caught from behind by DEs or just taking too long to find the hole.  The added dimension of Cierre Wood changed all that in a heartbeat.  The insertion of Wood in the first scoring drive immediately paid off, as he knifed to big gains in three of four carries.  This set up Allen's return, as the defense seemed to be backpedaling just enough to give Allen the chance to shift into TD gear and put us on the board.  We owe a great deal of our success early to Cierre Wood, and Allen owes him something ice cold and REFRESHING too.

Kelly seemed to have Crist coached up beautifully - he took what they gave us.  The boilers were effectively zoned to take away Floyd and any other threat of deep attack.  We countered with the 1,2 punch run game, and now Floyd leads the nation in commentary regarding WR blocking skills.  Early on, we were content to look inside to Rudolf, Riddick, and TJ and move the chains or play into our new found run game and/or field position.  Refreshing, no?  That's not to say the pass game was free from error, with Crist overthrowing a wide open Rudolf in the endzone early in the second quarter.  Also, imagine how different things might have turned out if Crist's first pass of the game and season that was tipped over the middle and just slipped through the hands of a defender had wound up picked off.  Scary.  Floyd fumbled when we had our foot on their throat.  We knew these things were going to happen, it was just a matter of how bad they were going to hurt us.  By some combination of luck, coaching, experience, and skill, we managed to keep these blows from being direct hits.

Meanwhile, the defense overachieved early, with Walls and Gray making workmanlike plays to stifle both ground and air.  Walls' cover 2 read and reaction to make the big early INT was a statement - not only are we no longer incompetent on the defensive side... we can can actually beat you with our brains and our talent.  Our DBs played soft on Smith and gave him his short yardage receptions, but kept him from adding to the highlight reel.  We bent but didn't break, with the best example in the first half being the long Purdue drive at about 5 minutes remaining that ended in a field goal but found us out of position and/or unset for multiple no-huddle plays, often with Teo making wild overplays or missing tackles, trying to make up for the confusion.  Despite these miscues, our defense played as a cohesive unit and picked each other up, holding the drive to a deep redzone FG.  Gulp... ahhhhh, refreshing.

Where it seemed like we couldn't be hurt in the first half, we exposed a little bit more of our soft underbelly in the second.  Floyd's fumble was "just one of those plays" of sorts, but it was more than just a glancing blow.  The safety was a brutal and costly instance of the running game returning to slow-mo at precisely the wrong time.  The defense let Marve beat them in spectacular fashion with his legs to draw the Boilers to within 8.  At that point, it looked like fate and futility might be conspiring once again to give us another cardiac ride to the finish line.

Where last year our defense would have let us down under similar circumstances, they seemed to only get stronger, more motivated, and more clutch from this point on, giving up less than 25 net yards and only one first down for the remainder of the game.  The defense was our difference maker and won us our first game.  "Refreshing" doesn't even begin to describe it. 

Time will only tell how much of this was a function of our new scheme, our new found running game, Boiler deficiencies, or just plain luck, but the facts are these:  it felt better than it has felt in a long time; for the most part it looked better; the result was a WIN which is certainly better; and our QB and Coach represented themselves in a way that felt, well.... refreshing.

Kelly on Crist

“You don’t have to win the Heisman today...take what they give you, be patient, let the offense come to you. You don’t have to force it, there’s plenty of answers for you out there. Let the game come to you. If you do that, you’ll be fine. And for me, have confidence because we would not put you back there unless we felt like you were going to do a great job.”

Death by a thousand plays

If the anticipation leading up to Saturday doesn't kill us, the sheer spectacle of our new offense just might, regardless of success or failure. 

Regarding the former, perhaps fear is a better word than anticipation.  The questions are well documented; the doubt is palpable.  ND Nation would be foolish not to be losing sleep over this game.  We've been fooled into believing in the hope of new regimes more times than we've celebrated bowl wins in the recent past.  We've readied ourselves for offensive brilliance.  We've nodded our heads in acceptance of a switch to the 3-4.  At our best, we we've been guilty of having faith in the incompetent;  at our worst, we've consciously ignored what our instincts should have told us was arrogance masquerading as excellence.  In short:  we've believed, and we've been burned. 

If wondering whether that stops now isn't too much for us, we might actually make it to kickoff, and then the real cardiac stimulation will start.  As Notre Dame fans, demographically, a lot of us have been raised by conservatives, whether fiscal, moral, or both.  These conservatives did what came naturally to them and did their best to raise their own to think, act, vote, and spend, well... conservatively.  And you know what?  Many of us like our football that way too.  This whole thing may be tough for us.  To many, huddling before offensive plays just makes too much sense to go and throw out the window.  Grinding out the clock just feels so blue and gold.  There is going to be a moment on Saturday when we all feel like we woke up in someone else's bed.  When that time arrives, my advice to you all is to take a deep breath, partake in legal over the counter mild depressants in moderation, pretend you've been invited by a friend to check out an arena league game, and most importantly:

Focus on what you know.
If you're so flustered you can't remember, here are a few reminders:
1.  The team that scores the most points wins.  You can even picture Lou Holtz saying it if that helps.  Brian Kelly's teams score 30 points per game regularly, and most of them come early.  This point production generally doesn't have a ramp at the beginning of the season and isn't prejudiced toward crappy opponents.  Past performance is the best predictor of future performance, and Brian Kelly teams almost never get shut out and almost always have 20 points by halftime.

2.  Teams that are efficient in the red zone win games.  (The red zone is where you have a good chance of scoring points, to return to point number one.)  Brian Kelly's first focus every week is on red zone efficiency, and while we all know he's not alone in that department, all of his teams have had good stats there.  We're going to get there a lot, and we're going to convert... a lot.  And if we don't convert, we don't need to go crying about it, because we'll be back there before we know it.

3.  Defenses hate the spread.  Teams build their personnel schemes around substitution rhythm and the chance to get set, and we're going to take that rhythm away.  If our pace of play is uncomfortable or confusing to you, just imagine trying to figure out how to make sense of it (let alone stop it) from a defensive perspective at field level while gasping for air.

4.  Risk is necessary to achieve reward.  Ah yes, the dirty secret of conservatives.  We will make a ton of mistakes.  We will be penalized up and down the field.  Yes, these are hallmarks of Brian Kelly's scheme too.  Take another sip of the legal depressant and remind yourself of a great quote from the Shawshank Redemption:  "get busy livin' or get busy dyin'."  Over time, our mistakes will begin to feel less impactful in light of the fact that we're running so many more plays and scoring so many more times than we're used to.

The Irish may lose on Saturday.  I wouldn't count on it, but it won't be the end of the world either if it happens.  It will happen again this season, and may happen more than many of us would like.  The whole thing is going to look like a hot mess sometimes.  It will feel uncomfortable.  But we'll be livin', and we'll be serving up a whole new brand of death by a thousand plays.

Boiling Pots of Questions

As the countdown to 2010 kickoff dips below the one week mark and Irish anticipation begins to heat up past a simmer, it makes perfect sense to start talking Boilers.  As we take our first look at this season's run in with our long time cross state rival, it becomes clear that Purdue is one team that can see our stack of question marks and raise us a few more of their own.

Want questions?  Start with Junior transfer QB Robert Marve.  The highly touted Tampa recruit's redshirt freshman season with the Canes in 2008 ran amok with problems on and off the field.  1300 yds, 9 TDs and 13 INTs later, he announced his intent to transfer to West Lafayette and then dropped a cherry on the sundae by tearing his ACL three days later in on field drills.  Highly touted, unproven, and recently injured... remind you of any QB phrases we've been dropping lately?

Questions related to injuries and depth don't stop under center.  Tailback Ralph Bolden (900 yds, 9 TDs) is out with a second serious knee injury, likely for good.  In fact, all five scholarship backs were sidelined for the spring game with injuries.  Two great starters return to the O-Line, but the rest of the crew is young and unproven.  Questions surrounding the line and the running game may force Marve to quickly find WR Keith Smith, which could lead to success by air - Smith was the league's best receiver last year while playing most of the season with a broken wrist.  The biggest question regarding Purdue's offense is really:  how one dimensional will they be forced to be, and if so, can they be successful?

Questions about the offense are but a shadow of those regarding the defense.  Sound familiar?  The secondary is in shambles after losing four starters and there is not much evidence of retooling to any degree that would keep Brian Kelly from salivating like Charlie Weis at a buffet line.  The program was still actively recruiting DBs in the Spring to plug the holes.  The foundation up front is solid, but additional questions from injuries around the linebacking core raise another question:  will the pass rush be solid enough to stop the temptation to soak this team with a persistent aerial attack?

Overall, the biggest question has to be, which Purdue will show up?  The team that beat Ohio State and Michigan last year, or the one that lost to Northern Iowa, Northwestern, and Minnesota?  How will the still new coaching regime fare after an accelerating start in its first season last year?  How much transition is too much transition for this team?  How many wins can be guaranteed from a schedule that matches the hot hots and cold colds of Notre Dame's?  Can Purdue squeeze out a bowl birth for the first time since 2007?

You wanted questions - you got 'em.  We should be used to this by now.  In seven days, we'll no doubt each have at least some of the answers.  Here's to boiling up the right ones, and evaporating our share of the pot.

Exploiting the Numbers: Purdue

The Prediction Tracker (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/) has been updated for the Purdue opener. For those of you that have not visited their site, it is a great source for detecting and exploiting any variances between the current line on a game and the consensus median line compiled by dozens of computer models. Early in the season, said variances are often only indicators of imperfect modeling or unknown information. Later in the season, variances can be big buzzing neon signs that it is time to send a wad of cash down to Vegas with your uncle Terry. As you can imagine, these variances are better exploited across a sizable pool of games than with one big push of your chips to the center of the table. My Dad has done pretty well at squeezing $1 singles and $3 parlays out of his buddy Bruno using this method as his guide over the last three years. Of course, my final bit of advice as always is: don’t take advice from me. Knowing all this, let’s take a look at Purdue.


The opening line is Irish by 10 and the money has been coming in on the Irish, resulting in a bet up spread of 11 as of the publication of this post. The median prediction by all computer models has the Irish winning by 9.83 points with one of the smaller standard deviations of any of the opening games, meaning most everyone agrees within a very tight range that the Irish will win, but without covering the spread. Well, fine, we’ll take that over losing and covering, right? One point of interest is the contrarian high vote of the poll – the Moore Power Ratings has the Irish winning (and covering) by 12. Looking back at last year’s results over the course of an entire season, Moore was a top 10 predictor against the spread, averaging about 52% correct. That should solidify any indecision you may have to the point of redirecting your discretionary spending to a malted beverage before the game, and reinforce the fact that even if you are the best of the best, you can only ever hope to have the slightest of edges against the house.  And by the "house", we're not talking about the house Rock built, we're talking about the one that was built with all the money they took from you last time you were down there.

Nevertheless, we will update this analysis before the big weekend arrives.

Panning for QB2 Gold

Friday’s practice was all about the key backups and position battles, with second squad decisions looming this week. It will be interesting to see who wins QB2 behind Crist, between Freshman Tommy Rees and Junior Nate Montana. Following Friday’s practice, Kelly highlighted the contrast between Rees’ natural fit in the spread offense and Montana’s arm strength and athleticism. Kelly’s decision here could be seen as an early insight into the value system and long term focus of the new regime. Does Kelly believe Montana will ever be leading his offense? Give Crist two games or two years – either way, you’re left with a shorter runway with Montana, hoping you can mold a more mature guy into an offense that might not come as naturally. A short runway and imperfect fit is what you’ve already got at QB1. While it may be better to bury Rees for now, there is also the matter of sending a message to the team and ND Nation. This offense is about discipline, precision, timing, and perfection. If all of these come more naturally to Rees and all other traits such as work ethic and competitive drive are equal, then pan what you’ve been preaching is gold and prove to the team that we’re all taking the same thing to the bank.

So Long, Petey

This one is a little overdue and dripping with irony, as I'm a Seahawk fan who could just as easily be saying "Hiya Petey."  But my blood and bones are Irish, and saying goodbye feels so much better these days than saying hello.

My focus could be on how certain I am that Pete Carroll will fail at the helm of another pro team.  On how past performance (34-33 in four seasons including playoffs) is the best indicator of future performance.  On how his approach on all levels has been closer to that of a song girl than a four star general, and why that won't work in the NFL.  On how reliance on seemingly God-given recruiting superiority and the ability to work NCAA regulations over like a contestent on The Biggest Loser mean nothing on Sunday.  On how staring intently with hands on knees and then skipping down the sidelines with back-slapping rah-rah giddyness doesn't exactly convince millionaire players that you have what it takes to put rings on their fingers.

I could be raging pissed at how the Seahawks' front office has handled this.  About how they have apparently adopted the Washington Redskin approach to building a franchise.  About how amateur they look when they hire a head coach before a GM.  About how they think having a Head Coach and a GM that don't have a direct reporting relationship somehow creates a good dynamic.  About how they booted a hometown guy who loves this city and its fans, and who would have never left us in the lurch except maybe to take the other job in town that just happens to be his alma mater.  About how they couldn't get a deal done with Mike Holmgren and think this somehow makes up for it.

But no.

Rather than focus on all that, I turn to my Irish side.  "So Long, Petey."  I sure am glad you left your program in such great shape.  I sure am glad the only person more over-paid and under-qualified for their new job than you is now the head coach of USC.  I sure am happy to see that running a clean program is going to be a new focus down there.  I will miss the way you used to stubbornly refuse to believe that your team could be stopped on 4th and 3 in your own territory so often.  Sometimes you reminded me of Charlie in that way.  Well, without the spittle in corner of your mouth anyway.  I'll miss you for the way you used to bad mouth your own kind when they were on their way out as well.  I'll miss the classical music that played on your personal website - I really liked listening to that while reading about how great you are.  But most of all, I'll miss the look of pure horrific shock on your face that would arrive each year when some unranked PAC 10 team would outscheme you while you were busy butt-slappin'.  Such a motivator.

I could remember you for your record against the Irish, but not today.  This is a time for new beginnings right?  There's just so much to look forward to in South Bend, and the circus you've left behind in LA will be more entertaining than watching Charlie try to drag you down with him on the way out.  I'd wish you good luck, but I think we both know... you used yours up in 2005. 

And so I simply say "So Long, Petey... See ya on the sidelines in Seattle."

"Wouldn't want to be ya."