Friday, September 21, 2012

Exploiting the Numbers: Michigan


If there is any game that should completely confound computer models, this is it.  Michigan.  Notre Dame.  Denard.  Te’o.  The Lights.  A liquor breathing hive of a crowd.  A storied rivalry between ranked teams.  Welcome to the Jungle playing every five minutes.  They should put a big top tent over the whole thing and sell it to the Ringling Bros.  Nevertheless, our friends over at thepredictiontracker.com have aggregated all the computer models in one place to attempt to restore order to the madness, and it pleases me to report:  things look good for the Irish.  The opening line was 5 and Notre Dame faithful have pushed it up to 6.  Computer models are tight on this game – Irish win by and average of 9 with a median of 9.5.  That means the smart bet is on the Irish giving the points, so go ahead and wager that beer with your Wolverine office mate.  Tell him he's weak for wanting the points too.  Money line may be even more solid, with no single model showing the Irish will lose.  Somehow, I’ve never felt closer to my computer…