Serving up one more surprise

I never thought I’d be sitting here… writing this.  Specifically, in the airport lounge, waiting for my delayed redeye journey (to Dallas, then Fort Lauderdale, then train to Miami if you’re keeping tabs) to witness the Irish play for the crystal ball on January 7^th, 2013, only five years removed from a 3-9 season under Charlie Weis, followed by four more seasons that saw the Irish do no better than five losses in each.

Surprise!

To be clear, and I’m sure everyone who’s ever loved or even liked the Irish will tell you the same thing, I NEVER stopped believing we’d be here some day… just not now, so soon.  The rate of change in college football is too slow, with great teams rising and falling over the course of decades while sport-jacketed blue-haired geezers pull their puppeteer strings to ensure that nothing alters what they so steadfastly believe to be the way things ought to be.

And I also didn’t think my flight would be delayed.

But it was.  And thus here I sit… surprised on many levels.  And I can’t help but tell myself a couple things that apply to all of the above:  good things come to those who wait, and surprises (good, or bad) tend to come in flurries.

Which brings me to my title game analysis and ultimate prediction.  Those who know my approach to predicting games are familiar with the fact that I tend to rely on objective, statistic-based measures to arrive at a conclusion, centered primarily around two areas:  the computer models, and efficiency statistics.

The computer models like Alabama.  Not by nearly as much as Vegas does, but the outcome is clear nonetheless:  Alabama wins by between 4 and 6 points if you look to the mean and median respectively of the over 30 computer models that our friends over at thepredictiontracker.com have aggregated.  One point to highlight is that, consistent with virtually every Notre Dame regular season game, the standard deviation between the models on this particular game is higher than virtually all other bowl games.  Models vary from anywhere as high as a 14 point Tide Roll and a 10 point Irish upset.  That’s substantial.  Why is that, you ask?  The Irish are unpredictable.  Prone to surprise people.  And surprises, as I look up at the blinking red 1:09 estimated new departure time for my flight, tend to come in flurries.

Efficiency statistics are much closer, but also favor Alabama by a pachyderm nose when you think about the way this particular game will be played.  Football Outsiders’ Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) has Notre Dame ranked 3^rd overall, and Alabama 4^th.  This is a blended average however, of Offense, Defense, Special Teams, and Field Position ratings.  When you look at each a little closer, Alabama has the 19^th ranked offense, the 8^th best defense, 30^th best special teams, and 7^th best field position average in the nation.  Notre Dame ranks 6^th, 2^nd, 89^th, and 68^th in those categories.  This seems to suggest that, when adjusted for strength of schedule, the Irish have the better offense and defense, but lag far behind in the intangibles.  It means the game will likely be tight but the Irish will find themselves needing to overcome a pronounced disadvantage in field position and some very scary things that may happen in the kicking game.  In a game that virtually all agree will be played close to the vest and won or lost in the trenches, it is hard to see that working out for us if the game is played 100 times on paper.  But there’s only one flight left out of Seattle to Dallas tonight, and there’s only one game being played at Sun Life on Monday, so… say it with me now:  surprises tend to come in flurries.

Are my hopes pinned on a surprise then?  Yep.  Am I worried about that?  Nope.  This team and this season have delivered far too many surprises to stop now.  There is only one team that will take the field on Monday with the knowledge that no matter what happens, things just always seem to work out for them.  The other team has doubt indelibly etched in its collective psyche, born from the lack of a clean sheet, a pronounced late season slide in performance, and an average of 24 points per game surrendered vs. the high quality opponents they played.

Notre Dame will win Monday night.  24-20.  It will not be pretty.  It never has been with us.  Golson will struggle at times, the offense will sputter, the defense will give up more than one rushing touchdown and get burned a few times on the play action deep ball, special teams will blow a play or two, and we will find ourselves playing for our lives at times.  But that will be all too familiar to our side, and we will find ourselves looking up at the sky saying “here we go again.”  But in the end there will be only one statistic that matters:  surprises.  And we will deliver one when it counts, taking that part of the game with a clean sheet, 1-0.  Crazy as it sounds, we can rely on that, and it will be enough.

Why the Irish will win big today

The Irish will win big today.  It won't be close.  I would be lying if I said I wasn't nervous, but then again, I'm nervous for the Blue and Gold game.  One thing said on GameDay this morning made me feel a LOT better:  games like this are remembered forever, and are almost always won or lost before the game kicks off.  Why?  Because teams that prepare, prepare, prepare, win games like this.

The Irish are prepared.  Want proof?  Let's do a little exercise:  if you were to make a wish list of things that would indicate you are more prepared to play in a circus-like atmosphere on the road vs. one of your oldest rivals for an auto berth into the National Championship, what would you HAVE to have?

1.  One of the best Defenses in the nation and THE best defensive player in the nation
Yeah, those make the list.  Check, we got 'em.  Football outsiders tracks defensive efficiency stats for all 20k+ possessions in college football each year.  Notre Dame currently ranks 2nd on that list behind Florida.  We rank 14th in the nation in available yards given up, 7th in the nation in "value drives" given up (the number of opponent drives that start on their own side of the field and reach at least the 30), and 1st in the nation in "explosive drives" given up (the number of opponent drives that average at least 10 yards per play.  Take note of that last one, Marqise Lee fans - you might bend us, but you won't break us.  Has Notre Dame faced better offenses than SC?  Umm, yes.  Both Oklahoma's and Michigan's offenses are more efficient when adjusted for strength of schedule than SC's.  SC on the other hand, can't say they've seen a defense quite like Notre Dame's.  Stanford is closest - we know how that turned out.

2.  One of the best Offenses in the nation
Yes, I said that.  I am a firm believer that this offense is the most underrated in the nation.  Again, I return to my friends over at Football Outsiders. This may shock you, so sit down.  Notre dame has the 6th most efficient offense in the land.  Ahead of Oregon.  Ahead of all SEC teams, save for A&M, and yes, ahead of SC's offense at 24th.  Why?  Efficiency means ball control, yardage gained, and points earned, all adjusted for strength of opponent played.  Notre Dame is 12th in the nation in creating "methodical drives", those that last 10 or more plays.  13th in the nation in Value Drives, defined above, and in the top 50 at gaining yards and obtaining first downs.  All of this while playing FOUR OF THE TOP 20 DEFENSES IN THE NATION, including Stanford, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and BYU.  It may not look like the bast Offense in the nation very often - the Irish have certainly hit their share of speed bumps - but it IS battle tested, which translates into PREPAREDNESS.

3.  The more experienced Quarterback
This one would have been an interesting debate two weeks ago, but with Barkley out and the mouth in, this is hardly up for debate.

4.  A battle tested team that believes it can win even when things aren't going their way
Overtime wins vs. any BCS team, regardless of whether they are Pitt or Stanford, should count as huge resume gold stars.  Many like to point to the triple overtime game vs. Pitt as a negative.  I point to that as a badge of honor.  SC:  what is your record in overtime?

5.  The most athletic ability on the field
If you've made it this far, you're probably looking for something that I'll give SC.  Here it is.  These guys are all world 5 star jump out of the gym, run past you kind of athletes.... with four losses.  Having the most talent on the field is a huge advantage... when you are coached right, battle tested, and PREPARED.  Otherwise, you are just really fast, strong guys making mistakes.

6.  The better coach
One guy took the preseason number one team in the land with all the talent in the world, a Heisman candidate at QB, and a mediocre schedule, and found a way to lose four games to date.  Another took an unranked team with the toughest preseason schedule in the nation and brings them into Compton with a clean sheet.  No contest here.

Am I willing to call this a 100% lead pipe lock?  Never.  Games like this are still played because weekends like last weekend happen sometimes.  But those things happen when teams aren't properly prepared.  The items above are the best indicators, in my mind, of preparedness.  As such, I believe this will be over earlier than many think.  My prediction:  I'm going to say each of the above items is worth 3 points of margin of victory.  We have 5, they have 1.  Therefore the Irish win by (5-1)*3 = 12.  Sorry Trojan fans, I know that might have pushed your mathletic abilities to the brink.

Irish win, 33-21.

Exploiting the Numbers: Michigan

If there is any game that should completely confound computer models, this is it.  Michigan.  Notre Dame.  Denard.  Te’o.  The Lights.  A liquor breathing hive of a crowd.  A storied rivalry between ranked teams.  Welcome to the Jungle playing every five minutes.  They should put a big top tent over the whole thing and sell it to the Ringling Bros.  Nevertheless, our friends over at thepredictiontracker.com have aggregated all the computer models in one place to attempt to restore order to the madness, and it pleases me to report:  things look good for the Irish.  The opening line was 5 and Notre Dame faithful have pushed it up to 6.  Computer models are tight on this game – Irish win by and average of 9 with a median of 9.5.  That means the smart bet is on the Irish giving the points, so go ahead and wager that beer with your Wolverine office mate.  Tell him he's weak for wanting the points too.  Money line may be even more solid, with no single model showing the Irish will lose.  Somehow, I’ve never felt closer to my computer…

Reilly's Relevance Response

Rick Reilly recently spun up a nice little piece for ESPN on why Notre Dame is irrelevant, here.

The beauty of this article is that it not that it tries to compare NCAA football to European professional soccer.  It's not that it compares Brian Kelly to Bob Davie.  I'm sure you can see the brain power behind those comparisons without help.  No, the beauty of this article is that it shows the paradox of the "ND is NOT relevant!" logic perfectly.  In case you were distracted by Reilly's obligatory Leprechaun hazing and Rudy references, his logic goes something like this:

A.      Notre Dame is NOT relevant!

B.      Notre Dame shouldn’t get to be on TV

C.      Notre Dame shouldn’t get invited to big bowl games

D.      Notre Dame shouldn’t get ranked high in the preseason

The paradox here is that B, C, and D ARE THE REASONS why A is not true.

·        We are relevant BECAUSE NBC is willing to extend our TV deal year after year.  You don’t think we’re a bigger brand than USC?  Then why does everyone tune into watch us lose every week on NBC?  More people love Notre Dame… or hate us… doesn’t matter to me… that makes us relevant. 

·        We are relevant BECAUSE we get invited to big bowl games.  Yep, we keep losing.  Don’t invite us back then.  Why do we keep getting invited?  Because people love us.  Or love to hate us.  Doesn’t matter to me… but thanks for making us relevant.

·        Notre Dame gets ranked high in the preseason BECAUSE we are relevant.  I’m sure the coaches and press are brainwashed into thinking we’re better than we are.  They want so badly to put Oregon State in the top 25 but find their pens mysteriously writing Notre Dame instead.  It’s a conspiracy!  Someone from Notre Dame must be counting the votes.  Let’s keep talking about it!  Talk talk talk!  Guess what talk does – it makes us RELEVANT.

What Reilly, and anyone else who wants to relegate Notre Dame should do is:  Stop writing and talking about us.  If we’re so irrelevant, that should be easy.  Please, tune us out.  Write about golf.  Vote us out of the top 25.  Bet you can’t do it.  You know why?  Say it with me now….

 We’re relevant.

I know you want to comment on this post.  I think we should keep the dialogue going.  I’m up for talking about Notre Dame any time.  We should talk about Notre Dame a lot.  You should discuss this with your friends too I think.  I'm sure Reilly will be revisting this irrelevant topic many times this year.  Maybe ESPN could cover this debate throughout the entire season;  have a chat room devoted to it.  Put some poll widgets up on Reilly's bio page.  There should be some time in the upcoming presidential debates devoted to Notre Dame.  More people should write about this.  Maybe NBC could cover it.  I feel the Notre Dame buzz growing, like it always does this time of year.  Like it always will.

Exploiting the Numbers: Pitt

Minutes to kickoff, probably too late to place a bet with anyone other than the guy sitting next to you, but if you do, word to the wise:  the line opened with the Irish favored by 8 and has sunk to 6 with apparently smart money coming in on Pitt.  Smart in that our friends at the prediction tracker see it as a closer game than that - Irish by 3.5 in another apparent thriller.  We'll see.

Exploiting the Numbers: Michigan

Quick update beore the game.  The line opened with the Irish favored by 4 this week, but that attracted money on the Michigan side, resulting in a bet-down spread of 3.5.  Our friends at the prediction tracker (http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/) have aggregated all the experts and computer models and returned something more like the the opening line:  Irish win by 4.06 on the median, with the average being slightly higher at 4.3.  So take that coworker from Michigan up on his cowardly offer to take the points from you if you have a chance... but it may be a nailbiter.

Irish Kool Aid: Refreshing

Game One - Notre Dame 23, Purdue 12

Whether you're drinking the green Kool Aid yet or not, you have to be feeling refreshed to a significant degree after Saturday's win and the start of the Kelly era.

The run game sputtered at first, but then found its groove early enough to make a difference.  Armando Allen seemed to be in too low a gear his first few carries.  The sheer speed of the offense was impressive and uncomfortable all at once, just like we thought it would be, but that seemed awkwardly counterbalanced by draw plays to Allen, who at first found nothing, getting caught from behind by DEs or just taking too long to find the hole.  The added dimension of Cierre Wood changed all that in a heartbeat.  The insertion of Wood in the first scoring drive immediately paid off, as he knifed to big gains in three of four carries.  This set up Allen's return, as the defense seemed to be backpedaling just enough to give Allen the chance to shift into TD gear and put us on the board.  We owe a great deal of our success early to Cierre Wood, and Allen owes him something ice cold and REFRESHING too.

Kelly seemed to have Crist coached up beautifully - he took what they gave us.  The boilers were effectively zoned to take away Floyd and any other threat of deep attack.  We countered with the 1,2 punch run game, and now Floyd leads the nation in commentary regarding WR blocking skills.  Early on, we were content to look inside to Rudolf, Riddick, and TJ and move the chains or play into our new found run game and/or field position.  Refreshing, no?  That's not to say the pass game was free from error, with Crist overthrowing a wide open Rudolf in the endzone early in the second quarter.  Also, imagine how different things might have turned out if Crist's first pass of the game and season that was tipped over the middle and just slipped through the hands of a defender had wound up picked off.  Scary.  Floyd fumbled when we had our foot on their throat.  We knew these things were going to happen, it was just a matter of how bad they were going to hurt us.  By some combination of luck, coaching, experience, and skill, we managed to keep these blows from being direct hits.

Meanwhile, the defense overachieved early, with Walls and Gray making workmanlike plays to stifle both ground and air.  Walls' cover 2 read and reaction to make the big early INT was a statement - not only are we no longer incompetent on the defensive side... we can can actually beat you with our brains and our talent.  Our DBs played soft on Smith and gave him his short yardage receptions, but kept him from adding to the highlight reel.  We bent but didn't break, with the best example in the first half being the long Purdue drive at about 5 minutes remaining that ended in a field goal but found us out of position and/or unset for multiple no-huddle plays, often with Teo making wild overplays or missing tackles, trying to make up for the confusion.  Despite these miscues, our defense played as a cohesive unit and picked each other up, holding the drive to a deep redzone FG.  Gulp... ahhhhh, refreshing.

Where it seemed like we couldn't be hurt in the first half, we exposed a little bit more of our soft underbelly in the second.  Floyd's fumble was "just one of those plays" of sorts, but it was more than just a glancing blow.  The safety was a brutal and costly instance of the running game returning to slow-mo at precisely the wrong time.  The defense let Marve beat them in spectacular fashion with his legs to draw the Boilers to within 8.  At that point, it looked like fate and futility might be conspiring once again to give us another cardiac ride to the finish line.

Where last year our defense would have let us down under similar circumstances, they seemed to only get stronger, more motivated, and more clutch from this point on, giving up less than 25 net yards and only one first down for the remainder of the game.  The defense was our difference maker and won us our first game.  "Refreshing" doesn't even begin to describe it. 

Time will only tell how much of this was a function of our new scheme, our new found running game, Boiler deficiencies, or just plain luck, but the facts are these:  it felt better than it has felt in a long time; for the most part it looked better; the result was a WIN which is certainly better; and our QB and Coach represented themselves in a way that felt, well.... refreshing.